Depreciation Tracker
Used vehicle depreciation curves as investment signals — residual values, captive finance exposure, and lease risk
Purpose
Depreciation trends are a leading indicator for captive finance arms (Ford Credit, GM Financial, Toyota Financial) and for dealer group used margins. When used vehicle values drop faster than expected, OEMs face residual value losses on off-lease vehicles and pressure on finance arm profitability.
Depreciation Tracker computes used-to-new price ratios, age/mileage-adjusted depreciation curves, and depreciation velocity by brand. Maps to tickers with implications for captive finance earnings and dealer group used gross per unit.
How It Works
Execution flow. MCP tool calls are shown inline on each step.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary for used and new sold data by make. Computes used-to-new ASP ratio per brand — declining ratio signals accelerating depreciation.
↔ Parallel Execution
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary for used vehicles with ranking by make and average_sale_price for current period.
get_sold_summarySame call for prior period. Computes used ASP change % to identify brands with accelerating or decelerating depreciation.
Flags brands with used ASP declining >2% MoM as RESIDUAL RISK. Maps to ticker with captive finance exposure note and estimated earnings impact.
MCP Tool Calls
| Tool | Calls | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
get_sold_summary | 4 | Used and new ASP by make for current and prior periods |
Example Output
DEPRECIATION TRACKER — National | February 2026 ════════════════════════════════════════════════ Ticker Brand Used ASP Now Used ASP Prior Δ% Used/New % Signal ────── ──────────── ──────────── ────────────── ────── ────────── ──────────── TM Toyota $28,400 $28,100 +1.1% 74.3% STABLE F Ford $31,200 $32,100 -2.8% 75.7% RESIDUAL RISK TSLA Tesla $27,800 $29,400 -5.4% 62.1% HIGH RISK GM Chevrolet $26,100 $26,400 -1.1% 70.4% WATCH STLA Jeep $29,800 $29,700 +0.3% 68.0% STABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS F: Used ASP -2.8% MoM — Ford Credit residual exposure elevated. Watch Q1 finance arm. TSLA: EV depreciation accelerating (-5.4%). Lease residual and CPO margin risk.
Cost Estimate
20 analyses/month ≈ $1–2
Limitations
- US market only.
- Depreciation analysis requires sufficient used sold volume per brand for statistical reliability.
- Does not capture off-lease volume dynamics directly — uses ASP as proxy for residual value trends.
- Electric vehicle depreciation may diverge sharply from segment averages; EV models should be analyzed separately.