Depreciation Tracker
Claim value trending, reserve adequacy assessment, and replacement cost tracking for insurers and underwriters
Purpose
Claims reserves are calculated once and rarely revisited until a vehicle actually totals. When a market segment depreciates faster than expected — as EV segments have done repeatedly — existing reserves are overstated relative to actual settlement obligations, tying up capital unnecessarily. When markets appreciate (supply constraints, regional shortage), reserves are understated and claims departments face budget pressure at settlement time. Neither scenario is visible without tracking the actual depreciation velocity.
Depreciation Tracker for insurers builds multi-period value curves using actual sold transaction averages at 60-day, 90-day, 6-month, and 12-month lookback intervals, with every step translated into claims impact: how much the settlement obligation has moved, whether existing reserves are adequate, which segments have accelerating depreciation requiring proactive reserve adjustment, and what the MSRP-to-transaction gap means for replacement cost claims on new vehicles. Brand retention rankings include insurance risk tiers aligned to claim severity and frequency expectations.
How It Works
Execution flow. MCP tool calls are shown inline on each step.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with make, model, inventory_type=Used for the most recent complete month. Current average sale price is the starting point for reserve calibration.
↔ Parallel Execution
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary for the periods ending 60 and 90 days ago in parallel. Short-interval points reveal near-term depreciation velocity — the rate most relevant for reserves set in the last quarter.
get_sold_summaryParallel calls for 6-month and 12-month lookbacks. Full depreciation curve reveals whether the segment is in accelerating, linear, or stabilizing depreciation — each pattern has different reserve implications.
search_active_carsCalls search_active_cars with YMMT and stats=price, rows=0 for listing mean, median, min, max. The asking-to-sold gap signals near-term depreciation direction — when sellers are cutting prices, transaction prices follow.
At each interval: Retention % = (avg_sale_price / MSRP) × 100. Monthly depreciation rate = price change / months between intervals. Settlement impact = dollar change in FMV per period. Flags accelerating periods where monthly rate exceeds 1.5%.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary ranked by make for current and prior periods. Assigns insurance risk tiers: Tier 1 — Low Risk (>98% retention, lower claim severity), Tier 2 — Moderate (95-98%, standard reserves), Tier 3 — Elevated (90-95%, increase reserves), Tier 4 — High Risk (<90%, rapid depreciation, total-loss claims increasingly likely).
Translates depreciation trends into reserve action: dollar change in FMV per quarter (reserve release or reserve build requirement), segments requiring proactive reserve increase, and premium adjustment recommendation for rapid-depreciation brands.
MCP Tool Calls
| Tool | Calls | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
get_sold_summary | 6–10 | Current and historical sold prices at multiple intervals, brand retention ranking |
search_active_cars | 1–2 | Current listing statistics and MSRP baseline retrieval |
Example Output
DEPRECIATION TRACKER — Insurer Edition | 2022 Tesla Model Y ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Analysis Date: March 2026 | Role: Claims Manager DEPRECIATION CURVE Period Avg Sale Price Retention % Monthly Rate Settlement Impact ────────────── ─────────────── ──────────── ──────────── ──────────────────── MSRP Baseline $58,990 100.0% — — 12 months ago $46,200 78.3% — — 6 months ago $38,100 64.6% -1.3%/mo -$8,100 vs 12mo ago 90 days ago $34,200 58.0% -1.3%/mo -$3,900 vs 6mo ago 60 days ago $32,800 55.6% -0.7%/mo -$1,400 vs 90d ago Current month $31,400 53.2% -0.5%/mo -$1,400 vs 60d ago Curve shape: DECELERATING — peak depreciation was 12-6 months ago Annualized current rate: 6.0%/yr INSURANCE RISK TIER: TIER 3 — ELEVATED Total-loss claim severity is DECREASING (lower FMV = lower settlement cost) But total-loss FREQUENCY may INCREASE as vehicles approach repair threshold faster RESERVE ADEQUACY Reserves set 6 months ago: Based on $38,100 FMV Current FMV: $31,400 (-$6,700, -17.6%) Reserve overstatement: ~$6,700 per policy if reserves not updated Recommendation: Release reserves for Model Y comprehensive/collision policies OR reallocate to frequency reserve (increasing total-loss risk)
Cost Estimate
20 reserve analyses/month ≈ $2–6
Limitations
- US-only — requires get_sold_summary which covers US sold transactions only.
- Depreciation curves require minimum 30 sold units per period for statistical reliability — low-volume or niche models may show erratic curves.
- Reserve adequacy recommendations use the portfolio-level depreciation trend; individual claim settlements must be calculated using the specific vehicle's comparable set.
- EV depreciation is volatile — flag all EV analyses as higher uncertainty and recalibrate quarterly.
More in the Insurer Plugin
Full total-loss workflow with settlement range and salvage estimate
View details →Portfolio risk intelligence for underwriting and reserve management
View details →Comparable-backed insurance valuation with total-loss threshold
View details →Same Capability, Different Plugin
These skills share the same underlying methodology but are tuned for a different audience.
Lenders use the same depreciation curves for LTV projections and advance rate decisions — when a model's depreciation accelerates, both the insurer's reserve and the lender's LTV are impacted in the same direction.
View in Lender →Appraisers use the same depreciation data to apply trend adjustments to individual valuations — the insurer's portfolio-level reserve signal and the appraiser's per-claim adjustment are derived from the same underlying market data.
View in Appraiser →