Depreciation Tracker
Residual risk curves with LTV projection, advance rate guidance, and brand retention tiers for portfolio managers
Purpose
Advance rates set at origination are based on residual assumptions that may be wrong before the ink dries. When a model segment is depreciating at 2% per month, a 24-month loan originated at 100% LTV crosses the underwater threshold in less than a year — and a 36-month term may generate a deficiency balance of 20% or more by maturity. The problem is not the loan decision; it is the residual assumption it was built on.
Depreciation Tracker for lenders builds multi-period depreciation curves using actual sold transaction averages at 60-day, 90-day, 6-month, and 1-year lookback intervals. Every step is translated into lending action: the monthly rate feeds LTV projection, the brand retention ranking drives advance rate tiers, the geographic variance map flags state-level LTV exposure, and the MSRP parity tracker reveals where new vehicle discounting is compressing the used value floor. When a loan balance is provided, the LTV is calculated at each historical interval — showing whether a currently healthy loan was already underwater in prior periods.
How It Works
Execution flow. MCP tool calls are shown inline on each step.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with make, model, inventory_type=Used for the most recent complete month. The right endpoint of the residual risk curve.
↔ Parallel Execution
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary for the periods ending 60 and 90 days ago in parallel. These short-interval points reveal the near-term depreciation velocity — critical for advance rate decisions on new originations.
get_sold_summaryParallel calls for 6-month and 12-month lookbacks. Longer interval points reveal the full depreciation curve shape — whether depreciation is linear, front-loaded (most common), or stabilizing.
search_active_carsCalls search_active_cars with YMMT and stats=price, rows=0 for current listing statistics. The asking-to-sold gap is a leading indicator of further depreciation pressure.
At each time interval: Retention % = (avg_sale_price / MSRP) × 100. Monthly depreciation rate = price change / months between intervals. If loan balance provided: LTV at each interval = (loan_balance / interval_price) × 100. Flags any interval where LTV exceeded thresholds.
For brand-level analysis, calls get_sold_summary ranked by make for current and prior periods. Assigns retention tiers: Tier 1 (>98%, standard advance rates), Tier 2 (95-98%, -2-3% cap), Tier 3 (90-95%, -5% reduction), Tier 4 (<90%, restrict or require GAP).
Translates the depreciation curve into explicit lending policy: advance rate adjustment %, GAP coverage recommendation, residual forecast revision %, and the specific depreciation evidence supporting each recommendation.
MCP Tool Calls
| Tool | Calls | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
get_sold_summary | 5–9 | Current and historical sold prices at multiple intervals, brand retention ranking |
search_active_cars | 1–2 | Current listing statistics and MSRP baseline |
Example Output
DEPRECIATION TRACKER — Lender View | 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Loan Reference: $28,500 | Portfolio focus: Retail auto loans RESIDUAL RISK CURVE Period Avg Sale Price Retention % Monthly Rate LTV (loan=$28,500) ────────────── ─────────────── ──────────── ──────────── ────────────────── MSRP Baseline $31,000 100.0% — 92% 12 months ago $26,800 86.5% — 106% ⚠ UNDERWATER 6 months ago $23,100 74.5% -1.0%/mo 123% ⚠ HIGH RISK 90 days ago $21,200 68.4% -0.6%/mo 134% ⚠ HIGH RISK 60 days ago $20,400 65.8% -0.4%/mo 140% ⚠ HIGH RISK Current month $19,800 63.9% -0.3%/mo 144% ⚠ HIGH RISK Curve shape: DECELERATING — worst depreciation was 12-6 months ago, now stabilizing Annualized current rate: 3.6%/yr | Peak rate was 7.2%/yr LENDING POLICY RECOMMENDATION Advance Rate: Reduce to 75% max LTV for new Bolt EV originations GAP Coverage: MANDATORY — LTV will exceed 100% retail within 18 months at any advance rate Residual Forecast: Set 24mo residual at 55% of current market value (not 65% book) Portfolio Action: Review all Bolt EV loans originated >12mo ago for underwater exposure
Cost Estimate
30 analyses/month ≈ $3–8
Limitations
- US-only — requires get_sold_summary which covers US sold transactions only.
- LTV projections use historical average prices at the model level; individual unit depreciation may differ based on trim, mileage, and condition.
- Brand retention ranking uses average sale prices — volume-weighted toward high-volume models which may mask thin-data brands.
- MSRP baseline requires either a VIN decode or the highest historical price as a proxy; vehicles sold at significant markups may have inflated MSRP proxies.
More in the Lender Plugin
Unit-level collateral valuation with LTV and recovery analysis
View details →Portfolio-level EV exposure scorecard across penetration, pricing, and depreciation
View details →Residual risk rankings across all models with advance rate guidance
View details →Same Capability, Different Plugin
These skills share the same underlying methodology but are tuned for a different audience.
Appraisers use the same depreciation curve data for valuation adjustments — where lenders see LTV implications, appraisers see how much to adjust away from a stale book value.
View in Appraiser →Insurers use the same depreciation curves for claims reserve adequacy — where lenders need LTV projections, insurers need reserve sufficiency projections over the same time horizon.
View in Insurer →