Market Momentum Report
Monthly portfolio risk briefing — collateral health, residual risk signals, and advance rate guidance in one report
Purpose
Credit committees and auto finance directors need to understand the collateral environment before they can set advance rates, residual forecasts, or portfolio concentration limits. But assembling that picture manually — pulling volume trends, depreciation rates, pricing power by brand, EV penetration shifts, and regional collateral variance — takes hours of work that most teams do not have time for at monthly cadence.
Market Momentum Report assembles the full lending risk picture in one run: total market volume trends (origination demand signals), brand market share gainers and losers (residual outlook by make), new vehicle pricing power index (which brands can support their residuals), residual risk alerts by body type and model (where to tighten advance rates), and regional collateral variance (where LTV assumptions need geographic adjustment). The output closes with three lending policy signals — residual setting, advance rates, and portfolio exposure — and a composite health rating (FAVORABLE / STABLE / DETERIORATING / MIXED).
How It Works
Execution flow. MCP tool calls are shown inline on each step.
↔ Parallel Execution
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with ranking_dimensions=inventory_type for current month, prior month, and 3 months ago. Calculates total units MoM%, avg transaction price MoM%, new/used mix shift, and industry-wide DOM trend — the origination demand environment.
get_sold_summaryParallel call with fuel_type_category=EV plus total market call to calculate EV penetration % and bps MoM change. Rising EV penetration increases portfolio EV concentration risk.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary ranked by make for current and prior month. Calculates share % and bps change per brand. Top 5 gainers = improving residual outlook; top 5 losers = deteriorating residual outlook. Direct input for residual setting by make.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with inventory_type=New, ranking_dimensions=make, ranking_measure=price_over_msrp_percentage. Categorizes brands: above MSRP (lower residual risk), at MSRP (standard), below MSRP (elevated risk — new transaction price compression pulls used values down).
↔ Parallel Execution
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with inventory_type=Used, ranking_dimensions=body_type for current month and 3 months ago. Flags segments where monthly depreciation rate exceeds 1.5%: RESIDUAL RISK ACCELERATING — tighten advance rates.
get_sold_summaryParallel call with ranking_dimensions=make,model to identify the 5 fastest-depreciating specific models for targeted advance rate action.
get_sold_summaryCalls get_sold_summary with summary_by=state to identify premium and discount collateral markets. Lenders with geographic concentration in low-value states face higher-than-modeled LTV exposure on national book valuations.
search_active_carsCalls search_active_cars for new and used with stats=price,dom, rows=0. Calculates active inventory count and implied days supply for each. High days supply + rising DOM = liquidation risk signal.
MCP Tool Calls
| Tool | Calls | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
get_sold_summary | 8–12 | Macro volume (3 periods), brand share (2 periods), pricing power, segment depreciation (2 periods), model depreciation, regional variance |
search_active_cars | 2 | New and used active inventory count and days supply |
Example Output
MARKET MOMENTUM REPORT — Auto Lender | February 2026 ════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Portfolio Risk Signal: MIXED ⚠ MACRO SIGNALS Total Units: 842,400 (+2.1% MoM) — Demand growing Avg Transaction: $34,200 (-0.4% MoM) — Slight price pressure EV Penetration: 8.3% (+42 bps MoM) — Portfolio concentration risk rising BRAND RESIDUAL OUTLOOK TOP GAINERS (Improving Residuals): Toyota +20bps, Subaru +18bps, Hyundai +15bps TOP LOSERS (Deteriorating): Ford -40bps, Nissan -30bps, GM -22bps PRICING POWER INDEX Above MSRP (Lower Risk): 8 brands (avg +3.2% premium) At MSRP: 7 brands Below MSRP (Higher Risk): 5 brands — ⚠ Nissan -4.1%, Ford -2.8%, GM -1.9% RESIDUAL RISK ALERT — BODY TYPE Body Type Current Avg 3mo Ago Monthly Rate Signal ─────────── ─────────── ───────── ──────────── ────────────────────── EV/BEV $31,200 $34,800 -2.4%/mo ⚠ TIGHTEN ADVANCE RATES Sedan $22,800 $23,900 -1.6%/mo ⚠ TIGHTEN ADVANCE RATES SUV $34,100 $34,900 -0.8%/mo STABLE Pickup $41,200 $41,800 -0.5%/mo STABLE LENDING POLICY SIGNALS 1. RESIDUAL SETTING: Reduce EV residuals 8% and sedan residuals 5% for new originations 2. ADVANCE RATES: Cap at 95% LTV for EV and sedan segments pending stabilization 3. PORTFOLIO EXPOSURE: Ford, Nissan, GM concentrations require immediate review
Cost Estimate
12 monthly reports ≈ $2–5/month
Limitations
- US-only — requires get_sold_summary which is US-only.
- Most recent complete month typically available within 1–3 days of month close — run after the 3rd of each month for reliable data.
- Regional variance analysis requires sufficient state-level sold volume — some states show low sample sizes for specific segments.
- Pricing power index covers new vehicles only — used vehicle pricing dynamics are captured through the depreciation alert steps.
More in the Lender Plugin
Residual risk curves with advance rate guidance at model and brand level
View details →Targeted residual risk analysis for specific models or segments
View details →EV lending risk scorecard — penetration, depreciation, and portfolio exposure
View details →Same Capability, Different Plugin
These skills share the same underlying methodology but are tuned for a different audience.
OEM manufacturers use the same macro signals for production allocation and incentive strategy — where lenders see residual risk, OEMs see demand and pricing decisions.
View in Manufacturer →Appraisers use the same depreciation and pricing power data for individual valuation adjustments, where lenders aggregate it into portfolio-level policy decisions.
View in Appraiser →